Brent crude registered a fall to a level of $80.6 per barrel despite the recent decision of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to extend output cut of 1.7 million barrels a day to 2024. Analysts see crude prices to remain in the range of $80-85 per barrel going ahead.
“Oil prices immediately sunk after the announcement, reversing gains from earlier in the day, suggesting the market was disappointed by the outcome,” said Jorge Leon, senior vice president at Rystad Energy. “As a result, we expect prices to hover between $80 and $85 per barrel in the coming months.”
The benign outlook for Brent crude prices augurs well for India, which meets 85% of its crude oil requirement via imports. The import bill has reduced in recent months, as crude prices softened and the supply for diversified, with Russian Ural accounting for a major share of imports.
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The Indian basket of crude is still closely linked to Brent. Despite the rise in import volumes, the net crude import bill declined by nearly a fourth to $68 billion in Apr-Oct period compared with $90.1 billion in the corresponding period of last fiscal. Lower crude oil import bill will allay the concerns over the current account deficit, even as merchandise trade deficit touched an all-time high of $31.5 billion in October.
OPEC and allies’ decision was aimed to arrest any fall in price, as demand from the top consumers dwindle.
However, the decision failed to have the desired affect, said Gnanasekar Thiagaranjan, Director, Commtrendz Research.
Moreover, the decision comes as a cushion against a possible fall in prices on the back of decline in the demand for crude going ahead.
“There is a feeling in the market that there will be a possible recession in the US and demand may not be good. And alternative energy sources is denting fossil fuel demand,” Thiagaranjan said.
As far as Angola and Nigeria are concerned, the countries who were against production cuts, what needs to be seen is the adherance to the decision.
“Angola, Nigeria, and Congo’s production levels were slashed and there is not a major actual decline in production since these countries were unable to produce at their earlier defined baseline,” said Pulkit Agarwal, Head of India Content (Cross-Commodities Expert), S&P Global Commodity Insights.
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The new production cuts has taken OPEC+ quota for the first quarter of 2024 at 35.6 million barrels a day, down from 37.3 million bpd expected before the meeting, Leon said. “This assumes that Russian export cuts (crude and products) do not affect production levels,” he said.
According to Rystad Energy, the updated liquid balance for the first half of 2024 now shows a market deficit of around 400,000 bpd.
“Because OPEC+ members already have cut supply significantly the need for additional reductions can generate reluctance and pushback,” said Bhushan Bahree, Executive Director, S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Going ahead, analysts believe that the next challenge for OPEC+ will be the state of demand when the time comes to dial back the cuts affirmed in its recent meeting.
OPEC+ on Friday announced a reduction in oil output by 1.7 million barrels per day till March 2024. The cut combines the voluntary 1 million bpd reduction by Saudi Arabia and an additional 0.7 million bpd voluntary cut from Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.
Further, Russia also extended its voluntary export cut of 500,000 barrels a day constituting 300,000 bpd for crude and 200,000 bpd for fuel products.
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Another outcome of the meeting was Brazil’s decision to join OPEC+ alliance. The country is the eighth largest producer of oil with 3.6 million bpd production.
Adding Brazil’s production to the group will take OPEC+’s global market share to more than 60%, returning it to 2018 levels, as per analysts.
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Indian markets made a strong comeback on Tuesday a day after the Israel-Gaza conflict resulted in panic selling that wiped out about Rs 3.68 trillion of investor wealth. The benchmark indices bounced back following the rally in global markets after the dollar and treasury yields dipped on the back of dovish comments by the US Federal Reserve.
The S&P BSE Sensex climbed about 567 points, or 0.87%, to close at 66,079.36, while Nifty50 rose 177 points, or 0.91%, to end at 19,689.85. On an intraday basis, both the benchmarks climbed over 1%.
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Though Nifty rose to a new record peak, and Nifty Bank has yet to do so, all eyes will be on Nifty Bank after Axis bank fuelled gave the index a strong momentum in the second half of last week. While more than 20% of Nifty 50 constituents already above 70 RSI, indicating an overbought situation, only Axis Bank from the Nifty Bank index is in a similar situation, giving an edge for Nifty Bank in terms of potential for further upmove. But, that said, constituents of Nifty Bank weighing around 60%, have seen delivery volume as high as 60% or more, in the last five days, signaling that a follow through buying in the index may be delayed. Meanwhile, Nifty has already broken the record peak, while Nifty Bank is still more than 3% below its record peak. This suggests more room for upside, which it will certainly catch up, but our bets are on Nifty 50 to move faster, as it finds new leaders, being a more diverse index.
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The Rs 151 crore Initial Public Offer (IPO) of Motisons Jewellers received 14.88 times subscription on the first day of bidding on Monday.
The IPO of the Jaipur-based retail jeweller company received bids for 31,05,38,000 shares against 2,08,71,000 shares on offer, according to NSE data.
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The category for Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) received 22.01 times subscription while the portion for non-institutional investors got subscribed 13.74 times. The Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) part got subscribed 8 per cent.
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“…RailTel Corporation of India Ltd. (“the Company”) has received the work order from Uttar Pradesh Police Recruitment And Promotion Board for Service amounting to Rs. 52,66,30,075 (Excluding Tax),” read an exchange filing.
Also, in Q1 FY25, RailTel reported a net profit of Rs 49 crore, up 25% on year in comparison to Rs 39 crore it posted in the same period a year ago.
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Rupee steadily gained against the US dollar following sustained inflows in the debt segment, weakness in the dollar index, India’s inclusion in the Bloomberg bond index all of it has been supportive for the currency.
Volatility could remain elevated on back the RBI’s sell-buy swap which is maturing today. Expectation is that the central bank could take delivery of the $5billion swap in the wake of adequate dollar inflows and rupee liquidity staying on the tighter side.
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